Stoic Meditation #18 - Illogical Logistics And The Second Law of Thermodynamics

A computer makes as many mistakes in two seconds as 20 men working 20 years make.

This is becoming more and more frequent, along with the frequency of damaged packages delivered by USPS, Amazon, UPS, and FedEx.

I ordered a part needed to repair an outdoor umbrella. Several attempts to fix the damage done to the poorly engineered and annoyingly critical part had failed for one reason or another so with much grumbling I ordered the outrageously expensive part in all it's plastic glory. The plan is to replace the part and augment the engineering so that this single tiny plastic part isn't expected to bear the brunt of the often vicious Chinook winds this part of the country is known for.

But first I needed the part.

The part was delivered into the hands of the USPS in Webster, NY with a final destination of Golden, CO. But arrows shot by the USPS don't travel in straight lines and often overshoot. My package's mini-vacation to a local ski resort:

Figure 1. A postal package's vacation. (Click to enlarge.)

The USPS informed me the part would be delivered this past Friday. No package delivered. No notification. No update on the USPS site. May 5th the USPS site updates its tracking history. Looks like my package went on to Steamboat Springs, CO (147 miles away from Golden) where it spent the weekend. After an additional 147 miles back to Golden, it appears my package might be delivered today, three days later than expected. (See Figure 2)

I once tracked a package as it arrived in Denver from Ohio then went to Virginia before coming back to Denver. That delay was close to ten days. Several times a month we receive the neighbor's mail, which we kindly deliver. Makes me wonder how often our mail is delivered to neighbors.

The USPS has a nice feature where they email a picture of the pieces expected to be delivered each day. About half the time when an expected piece fails to arrive it shows up a day or two later. I have a hunch those are mis-delivered pieces from neighbors who have done the right thing, particularly since sometimes it’s been opened, probably by habit without looking at the address. And then there are times I have to flag the missing items as AWOL to the USPS. I have just such an important piece on the watch list now. Maybe that'll arrive today, too.

Alas, everything battles entropy and human behavior holds no exception over this law. When combined with the increasingly unpredictability of increasingly complex and complicated computer systems, this is what we get. (In more vulgar terms.) Yet another opportunity to practice patience.

I believe things have always been this way. Except decades ago I wouldn't have known where my package was until it arrived. Today, increased visibility into where things are has revealed when errors like this happen. This increases the risk of lifting our anticipation to the level of anxiety as we monitor the arrival of something and plan accordingly. Or not. On the whole, there are probably more important things in need of our attention.

Discard your misperceptions.
Stop being jerked like a puppet.
Limit yourself to the present.
Understand what happens—to you, to others.
Analyze what exists, break it all down: material and cause.
Anticipate your final hours.
Other people’s mistakes? Leave them to their makers.

Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 7.29

The Full Timeline According to USPS:

Figure 2. (Click to enlarge)

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Image credit: Gork 3/Author